Analysis: Nervous voters send message to Obama

By BETH FOUHY
Associated Press Writer
Published: Monday, November 23, 2009
Updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2009 8:22 AM CST
NEW YORK (AP) — Voters nervous about the economy and fed up with the political establishment dominated the off-year elections, sending a strong message to President Barack Obama, who won the White House as a change agent but has himself become the face of political power and incumbency.

Independents who supported Obama broke heavily for Republicans Tuesday, helping the GOP win marquee governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey. And the coalition of younger, minority voters who powered Obama’s victory last year was replaced by an electorate that was noticeably whiter, especially in Virginia, where Democrat Creigh Deeds lost in a landslide.



Yet Democrats weren’t the only ones in danger, as voters also vented their frustration at incumbents and party insiders.

In upstate New York, Democrat Bill Owens won a House seat held for decades by Republicans in a special election dominated by a fierce intraparty GOP split.

There, conservatives and national Republican figures led by former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin helped force out assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate chosen by GOP county chairmen, in favor of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The conservatives were incensed by Scozzafava’s support for abortion rights and gay marriage.

In New York City, independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won a third term against a little known, poorly funded Democratic challenger. Polls going into the election showed voters generally approved of Bloomberg’s job performance but resented his aggressive effort to get the city’s term limits law lifted and his expenditure of as much as $100 million of his own money to stay in power.

To be sure, each race was as much about local issues as about firing warning shots at the politically powerful. But taken together, the results of the 2009 off-year elections could imperil Obama’s ambitious legislative agenda and point to a challenging environment in midterm elections next year.

“In bad economic times, people don’t like the politicians who are holding the reins of power,” said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California. “For Obama, it means the 2008 election was not a key to everlasting success. It was the first step in an ongoing journey, and he’s going to have to work very hard to continue earning voters’ trust.”

For now, Obama must worry about the impact of the 2009 contests on health care reform, his signature legislative priority.

Earlier Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said a vote on health care may not happen before the end of the year — a sign that some Democrats don’t feel confident tying themselves to Obama and casting a controversial vote for his reform effort.

In the longer term, Democrats must figure out how to defend Senate seats and hang onto dozens of House districts they won in 2006 and 2008 that could be imperiled now.

Party strategists worry the Obama voters who helped elect Democrats up and down the ballot last year may sit out the midterms because the president isn’t on the ballot, or because they’re frustrated he’s failed to bring the fundamental change to Washington that he promised.

Democrats must defend as many as 60 marginal House seats next year, many in districts the president lost or carried only narrowly in 2008, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans.

Tuesday’s results also pointed to a somewhat reinvigorated Republican Party after it had been left for dead a year ago. That’s largely thanks to independents, the fastest growing voter bloc, and the most notoriously fickle.

In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won a whopping 66 percent of the independent vote, helping him bury Deeds, who got just 33 percent. Obama narrowly carried independents in the state last year, helping him become the first Democrat to win the state in a presidential contest since 1964.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie won a much tighter race against incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, largely on the strength of independents. Christie won 60 percent of the independent vote after Obama won a majority of independents last year.

The GOP brand is still weak — several recent polls show the percentage of voters calling themselves Republicans has dipped into the low 20s — and the breakaway conservative movement seen in the upstate New York congressional race could further erode the party’s efforts to broaden and rebuild.

But the two gubernatorial victories Tuesday proved Republicans can win if they choose candidates responsive to the mood of their state’s electorate.

“Republicans are a conservative party, all Republicans generally are,” GOP strategist Alex Castellanos said. “The question is, can Republican candidates stand on conservative principles and win the middle? That’s what McDonnell and Christie were able to do.”

———

EDITOR’S NOTE: Beth Fouhy covers national politics for The Associated Press.

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Article Comments Article Comments (25)
The comments below are from readers and do not represent the views of the Daily Journal.
T-Bone posted at Tuesday, November 17th, 2009 at 12:52 pm

Turns out NY 23 is getting closer and closer each day. I wonder if common sense still wants to use this for proof Obama is not losing support?

If it wasn't for the third canidate there is little doubt who would have won this election.
riverrat420 posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 8:26 pm

Also Common Sense, I do agree that anyone who owns any firearms definitely should have the capability to provide some type of adequate security to protect against theft. My security system is my trigger finger when i am home, and my fiance's when I'm on the boat. That system has been proven to work not only to detour theft of the guns, but from theft of all personal belongings as well as from vandalism, break ins, and most other criminal activity.
riverrat420 posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 8:17 pm

Common Sense, thank you for answering my question, as i was really just curious. We may not agree, but as Americans we are both entitled to our opinions as it is our right and freedom to do so. Personally, i know a handful of hunters in our area that use sks's and ak variants for deer hunting, and i have a deckhand that i work with that uses an ar15 for coyote hunting where he lives down in popular bluff. Just about every deer season, i have about 5 or 6 of my friends ask if they can use my rifles for hunting, but i always decline due to the fact that i don't believe in lending out guns. I dont really hunt much, I'm more into target shooting and just plinking around, ect. I agree that the assault rifles would be easier to convert to f/a, but in essence, any semi auto can be converted to operate f/a with a file and knowledge of where to shave metal down and how far down. Personally, i prefer bump-fire as a f/a alternative, as it does not alter the gun and is perfectly legal.
T-Bone posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 3:35 pm

Life begins at conception is a religous is teaching?

Describe an embryo to any scientist and ask if they would conside it alive or dead? Of course its alive and it can only develope in to a human, not a monkey, cat or dog so therefore it should be considered a human life. Has nothing to do with religion.

And you won't resort to name calling or degradation? Since when or does it only refer to this article?
Common Sense posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

For riverrat420: You are joking right??

How many serious hunters own a semi-automatic hunting rifle!!?? Or use a M16 or AK-47 to hunt!?!?

The difference is the capacity of the magazine and the capability to covert to full automatic.

If you want to own a assault rifle, M16, M4, AK-47, SKS, numberous others, etc -- you should have to have a special license and the capability to provide some type of adequate security to protect against theft.
riverrat420 posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 9:14 am

lmao! I misjudged you,RUkiddingMe,and for that i'm sorry. To be scared by words on a screen written by someone that you have never personally met,who holds no beef with you, but that you have more than likely passed by countless times at various stores,public events,school sports games,ect, you really are more of a punk than what i gave you credit for. Man, that's sad. I've lived in Park Hills for 16 years,moved here from Cape when i was 10, and i can honestly say that i have never been so intimidated that i fear anyone in this area, let alone by words on a screen! Wow!

Moving on, the idea of joining the navy and fighting a false flag war against ppl who have done nothing wrong to our country is appalling to me. I would never fight on the side of tyranny, as I am ultimatly ProAmerica and ProConstitution.

I feel the need to impress no one with my knowledge of anything, and your blatant attacks in your post prove 2 things: that i must have struck a nerve to cause your reaction, and that you cannot come up with an adequate rebuttal to my questions.
RUkiddingMe? posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 7:21 am

Riverrat, just who are you trying to impress with your knowledge of guns? Nobody cares dude! Get over yourself man. Time to put down the blunts and start living a sober lifestyle while you still have some brain cells left. Maybe you could get a job on the boat that calls for work overseas or Afghanistan? That would make me feel safe. Knowing you and your fiance' are out here living with us even every other month is scarry dude!
riverrat420 posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 3:15 am

4. the overall looks of the rifle. There are numerous stock sets and dressup kits one can buy for certain well known hunting rifles which give them the same physical features as an assault rifle, in example the ruger 10/22, mini 14 ranch rifle,ect. but changing the stock on a rifle does not change the rifle itself, its still a hunting rifle, and still has the same receiver, internal parts, ect.
5. the ability to hunt with the rifle. Here in missouri, most animals that are hunted are around 200lb mammals, shot at distances within 200 yards, but done with rifles that can easily exceed this range and size of game. An ak variant, shooting a 7.62x39 cartridge, is rated to take down 200lb mammals at 200yrds, give or take a few hundred yards, and is perfectly suited for hunting here in missouri.

So i ask you, whats really the difference?
riverrat420 posted at Friday, November 13th, 2009 at 2:54 am

Common Sense, I am genuinely curious to know, why is is that you feel that there are any more responsibilities that come with owning a semi automatic assault rifle than with owning a handgun, shotgun, or a hunting rifle? The amount of responsibility should be the same for owning any type of firearm. Could you possibly feel this way because:
1.of their ability to accept high capacity magazines? If so, what would the difference be between having 2 40rnd mags for an semi auto assault rifle and having 8 10rnd mags for a semi auto hunting rifle?
2. the pistol grip feature? What would the difference be between having a pistol grip or having a thumb-hole stock like quite a few hunting rifles come from the factory with, besides that the later is joined to the buttstock? they both have the same function, aiding the shooter with stability.
3. The ballistics of the cartridge? Many ppl think that assault rifles fire "high-powered rounds", when in fact they fire medium powered rounds (7.62x39 is very similar to a .30-30), far less powered than the .308,30.06,25.06,.300,7mm,.243,.270,.338,ect that are popular rounds used in hunting rifles.
Common Sense posted at Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 1:03 pm

For T-Bone: First, I don't resort to name calling or degradation.

Now, I never said that no one could not own an assault rifle - I just believe there is a lot of responsibility that should go with it. I would never denied anyone (not felons, mentally ill, etc) the right to own a pistol, shotgun, or hunting rifle. The argument of national security is a little far-fetched.

The argument of life begins at conception is an argument based in religious teaching - and should not be part of government policy.
T-Bone posted at Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 8:49 am

Common sense? Is that your name or something you hope to achieve some day?

You say the republicans want to take away freedom because they are against abortion? Even know the constitution says no one should be denied life without due process of the law. The only people who think life doesn't begin at conception are the ones who want to justify taking that said life for conveience purposes. It makes them feel better about their decision.

Then you decide that no one needs an assult rifle? So I guess we should just let you decide which parts of the constitution are valid and which are not?

I don't own an assult rifle or any gun right now, but I think its important part of our national security to have guns in private ownership. Even if our government's army was totally decimated, it would be very hard for any foreign power to come rule us with private citizens having guns, specially assult rifles. You may say thats not likly to happen but you just never know.
RUkiddingMe? posted at Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 7:21 am

Once again, you all scare the crap out of me! :(
riverrat420 posted at Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 12:58 am

lol tiredofthebull,i still have yet to read a post of yours and not bust out laughing. Really, an 82 pickup? come on now. I despise trucks, and would never own anything older than i am. Try an 05 sea-bring, no redneck bumper stickers, however, an obama joker poster in the back glass, and a few death metal band stickers, don't own a shotgun, but you can most certainly find a 9mm on my waist and/or an Ak variant in the passenger seat, no mullet, cant stand my hair any longer than a inch or 2 (that one was hilarious, but its not the 80's dude....),True Cammo only when in the woods, street clothes are the best cammo for around town, and i very rarely pay with cash, most of the time debit card, i lose cash too easily and its easier to use.
As far as in the ppl thinking the assault weapons are "bad guns", they believe that because they are brainwashed by the liberal media to think that way. a gun is a tool, it cant do anything by itself. when bad things happen involving guns, the person controlling the gun is the cause, not the gun.
projectmoneyreject posted at Wednesday, November 11th, 2009 at 11:45 pm

Tired of the bull i think you would be surprized to know that Riverrat travels in a family car has only 1 poster on his back windshield that support our dislike of ourleadership if you seen us out in public you wouldn't think twice we look just like the average family with a fussy two yr old and a very pregnant wife.While i see you are trying to make a joke those sterotypes are just that.While me and my fiance firmly beleive in right to free speech i find it hard to see so many people on here bash him and think he is just a nut running around with guns screaming "antigovernment" propaganda when while we may travel with a gun to protect us and hold our rights we are still just like all of you.He is a wonderful father and cares about the community enough to try and warn ppl which is more then most who are aware do.And also I think the voters are nervous because deep down everyone knows something is wrong and things are changing for the worse.It's like when animals act strange before a natural disaster they just "feel" it coming .
Common Sense posted at Wednesday, November 11th, 2009 at 9:49 pm

For T-Bone: The parties will always back the incumbent - unless they have done something criminal, dems or repubs.

As for your issues; guns, no problem, however you and I don't need assault rifles unless we jump thru some hoops to get them; gay marriage, what does it hurt?; taxes, necessary but need to be fair; and abortion, a personal decision (no public funds) if you don't like it don't have one and raise your children that way, religion and politics don't mix - especially today.

The republicans are always talking freedom - well let people have it!!

I will defend your right to practice any religion or own guns. But your religion ends with you - you are not allowed to force it on someone else. Guns, especially assault rifle come with conditions. And don't use the argument of a slippery slope - there are too many dems and repubs you seriously support gun ownership.

Also, the repubs are always preaching personal responsibility -- so take some with guns.

Its not perfect - never will be, but we can make it better.
tiredofthebull posted at Wednesday, November 11th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

Don't always agree w/ Ribeye, however RiverRat takes the cake on neo-right issues... WOW!

I can see it.. driving an 82 pickup with a "Protected by Smith & Wesson" bumper sticker, 2 shotguns in the window rack, camo uniform with a mullet and goatee.. pay by cash, carry no ID..."

:)

Just having fun, and I am conservative... strongly conservative.. and a gun owner and 2nd amendmant supporter, yet one must also use restraint and know when NOT to speak.

It's nuts like you that scare 55% of this nation into thinking because a gun LOOKS like an "army gun" then it must be a bad gun.....

Please be quiet riverrat....
ribeye posted at Tuesday, November 10th, 2009 at 9:12 pm

To whom it may concern:

Passed the House but won't pass the Senate. Not if they want their seats come next election.

The health care system is broke but something as simple as putting a cap on meds..is far too simple, and couple other little items. WE have to remember the government has been in bed with the pharmacies for years. So that is out of the question.

Have to change the entire system and way of life. Sure hope not, don't care who is president.

We have a shortage of Doctors now. Can O'bama print Doctors out like he can money?

Who would want to spend the money and the years it takes to be a doctor just to be told by the government who, how, where and when with some yoo who sitting in Washington making all the medical decisions?

think not

All you geniuses and intellectual scholars that keep wanting to impress us with all your knowledge...........

sorry:)

have a good day



hummmmm hummmm hummmmm
missouri_granny posted at Tuesday, November 10th, 2009 at 11:52 am

riverrat420, I have to agree with you on that one. According to Obama I am one of the "bitter clingers".
T-Bone posted at Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 10:19 am

Ok, so Corzine is damaged goods, I will give you that. Makes you wonder why Obama and Biden would both try to get someone who was so damaged into office. That shows real integrity.

I notice you didn't dispute any of my points about what a majority of the voters think is imporant and those points run contrary to the Democrats Platform.
Common Sense posted at Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 8:54 am

For T-Bone and ribeye: I can't let you two have all the fun.

Corzine was damaged goods; Deeds, who?, not a strong candidate; don't forget the GOP lost a long held seat in NY; and the Palin/Limbaugh/Beck backed candidate lost in NY.

Historically, the governorship in VA always went to the party out of the White House, plus Virginia is evenly split but leans conserative.

Only time will tell, but I think it is on the side moderates and democrats. The GOP is in trouble and they know it.
riverrat420 posted at Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 8:34 am

great post ribeye. we may not agree on everything, but oh well, no to ppl can agree on all topics, that what makes us human and makes commenting on this site interesting. I don't mind being labeled a "gun and ammo toting nut", conspiracy theorist, or anything else ive been labeled, its really kinda funny to me to tell the truth. If you want to get technical, by the report DHS put out back in April, the govt labels all gun owners, returning vets, conspiracy theorist, militias, constitutionalists, protesters, and patriots right wing extremist and domestic terrorist anyway. I'm sure I'm just like millions of other Americans out there and my names on some terrorist list somewhere, but i dont care, to me that just means the govt knows that i know what the've been doing is wrong and know that when the time is right I'll be one of the many who will stand and fight to take back this once great nation. Ive never been one who cares what others think, the only opinions that truly matter is ones self, their significant-other, and immediate family anyway. Peace be with you and your family my friend. good day
ribeye posted at Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 6:19 am

To whom it may concern:

The thread someone was SO concerned about must have been the one time I agreed w/river rat: 'O'bama, "I will keep my money, guns and freedom and you can keep your CHANGE."

This automatally makes me a gun toting nut and amo carrier? Think not.

Just in theory only. Some of you are so close minded: and know so little, take so much for granted......... its frightening.

Some of you are the scary ones.

Have a great day -
ribeye posted at Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

r//rat = I'll do the same

Thank you
T-Bone posted at Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 at 1:41 pm

"Obama’s victory last year was replaced by an electorate that was noticeably whiter"

So, I guess what they are saying is Obama was elected by a darker electorate or in some cases probably an electorate that was invisible,(the accorn registered voters).

Liberals continue to think people elect them for their ideas. They are dead wrong, they got elected because they weren't George Bush. The majority of the people like their guns, they don't like gay marriage, they don't like taxes and they don't think its ok to kill babies.
riverrat420 posted at Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 at 9:46 am

I have a message for Obama:
I'll keep my money, guns, and freedom. You can keep your change.
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